In the first half of the October the markets recovered due to optimism for another tranche of stimulus. Then Trump tweeted that an agreement would only be reached after the election. Since then, markets trended lower as investors continued to doubt such an agreement will be reached soon.

Third quarter earnings results did not impress either, and perhaps more importantly the cautious tone on the economy that management conveyed on their respective calls.

Finally, there was plenty of confusing news regarding the uptick in coronavirus infections worldwide and the search for a vaccine. Gilead’s Remmdesivir received FDA approval, AstraZeneca and Moderna announced they might also seek FDA approval before the end of the year, and J&J announced they would continue the trial for their vaccine after they stopped it the week before.

As a result, the month of October was disappointing: The S&P 500 fell by -2.8% and the MSCI World Index by -3.0%. Even 20-year bonds fell by -3.4%.

Unfortunately our strategies again took some hits as well with Universal -2.2%, MiniMax -3.5% and Pro -5.7%.

On the one hand we can now hope that the notorious “Halloween effect” will work again in our favor so that the months of November to April may see better returns from stocks compared to the rest of the year.

On the other hand, Bitcoin has been rising steadily last month by almost 30%! As it seems, our strategies have picked up this trend as well and are now very strongly focused on crypto.

Should we be scared? Will that be a trick or a treat? We’ll know more in month from now…

Stay happy, healthy and wealthy!

Omar